If you happen to’re selecting key phrases based mostly on search quantity alone, you’re making a mistake. You additionally want to think about whether or not the key phrase is smart for your corporation and whether or not you’ll be able to realistically rank for it.
Right here’s the method:

Let’s undergo the steps in additional element.
Folks normally depend on search volumes for this, however they are often deceptive.
For instance, “pheasant breast recipes” will get an estimated 1.9K month-to-month searches within the U.S. However the top-ranking web page will get far much less site visitors:

It’s the alternative for “backlink checker.” The highest-ranking web page will get an estimated 27K month-to-month visits regardless of the key phrase having solely 5.9K month-to-month searches.

Listed here are a couple of explanation why this may occur:

What’s the answer?
Use the top-ranking web page’s as a proxy for site visitors potential as a substitute of search volumes.
If you happen to’re an Ahrefs consumer, the Site visitors Potential (TP) metric in Key phrases Explorer tells you this. You possibly can even kind and filter key phrase concepts by TP to ensure you deal with key phrases which can be prone to ship you first rate site visitors.

If you happen to’re not an Ahrefs consumer, plug the top-ranking web page’s URL into our free site visitors checker.

Tip: verify the search quantity development
For instance, Key phrases Explorer reveals that searches for “how does wordle work” are declining:

That is echoed in Google Traits:

Google needs to rank the kind of content material that searchers are on the lookout for. Until you’ll be able to create that, your probabilities of rating on the primary web page are slim to none.
Listed here are 5 frequent content material sorts and the assets you’ll have to create them:

How have you learnt which one searchers are on the lookout for?
The reply is fairly apparent for some key phrases. For instance, individuals trying to find “mortgage calculator” clearly need an interactive software, whereas these trying to find “purchase homepod mini” need a product web page.
If it isn’t apparent in your key phrase, the primary web page of outcomes normally paints a fairly good image.
For instance, all first-page outcomes for “days between dates” are interactive calculators:

Because of this except you’ve gotten entry to a developer and designer, you’ll be able to’t create what searchers need and can wrestle to rank.
Alternatively, most first-page outcomes for “excel distinction between two dates” are primarily weblog posts:

Because of this all you want is a author to create the form of content material searchers need.
Tip: all the time pull unpersonalized search outcomes
If you happen to’re utilizing our web optimization Toolbar, click on the extension icon in your browser, toggle “SERP instruments” on, then select a location within the “Native search simulator” part.

If you happen to’re utilizing Ahrefs’ Key phrases Explorer, select a rustic from the dropdown.

If you happen to ranked the kind of content material searchers are on the lookout for, would it not be priceless for you?
The most typical approach of answering that is to map key phrases to the customer’s journey.

The concept is straightforward: The sooner individuals are of their journey, the much less seemingly they’re to purchase your services or products (and the much less worth the key phrase has for you).
Right here’s an instance for our enterprise:

This mannequin is OK, however it has some flaws, as Tim Soulo covers in his key phrase analysis information.
For that cause, we developed our personal mannequin for figuring out the so-called “worth” of a key phrase. It’s referred to as “Enterprise Potential,” and it scores key phrases between 0 and three—relying on how simple will probably be to pitch your services or products in your content material.
Right here’s an instance for Ahrefs:

It’s as much as you which ones mannequin you like; simply be sure to maintain search intent in thoughts when judging a key phrase’s worth.
Some key phrases are tougher to rank for than others.
Listed here are three inquiries to ask to resolve how seemingly you’re to rank for a key phrase.
A. What number of backlinks do I want?
Backlinks are certainly one of Google’s essential rating elements. Because of this when you’re competing in opposition to pages with plenty of backlinks already, you’ll have to construct plenty of backlinks to your web page—and that’s exhausting.
For an excellent tough concept of what number of backlinks you’ll have to rank, verify the trace under the Key phrase Problem (KD) rating in Ahrefs’ Key phrases Explorer (or use our free Key phrase Problem checker).

Nevertheless, there are two vital caveats to this quantity:
- It estimates what number of backlinks it’s good to rank within the high 10, not #1 – You’ll most likely want at the least this many high-quality backlinks, if no more, to crack the primary place.
- It doesn’t take hyperlink high quality under consideration – Some backlinks solid stronger “votes” than others. If the top-ranking pages have plenty of low-quality or mediocre hyperlinks, you most likely gained’t want that many high-quality hyperlinks to rank within the high 10.
For a significantly better sense of what number of good backlinks you want, you’ll have to audit the backlink profiles of the top-ranking pages.
Right here’s a very good start line courtesy of Glen Allsopp, founding father of Detailed.com:
For instance, Key phrases Explorer tells us that the top-ranking web page for “schema generator” has backlinks from nearly 2.6K domains.

But when we plug that URL into Ahrefs’ Web site Explorer, verify the Backlinks report, and apply Glen’s filters (together with a few others to exclude hyperlinks from low-authority domains with out site visitors), that quantity drops by ~66% to 879.

On this case, that’s nonetheless rather a lot of backlinks, however you’ll be able to see how these filters might take some key phrases from “I’ll by no means get that many backlinks” to “I believe I can handle that.”
B. How “authoritative” are the web sites within the search outcomes?
Google has constantly denied utilizing any form of web site authority metric in its rating algorithms. But, when Tim surveyed his viewers of SEOs on Twitter, nearly two-thirds stated they take it under consideration when analyzing their probabilities of rating for a key phrase.
If you wish to do the identical, eyeball the Area Ranking (DR) column in Key phrases Explorer.

If the top-ranking web sites have the identical or decrease DR than you (use Web site Explorer or our free web site authority checker to verify), that’s a very good signal. If their DR scores are approach greater, their excessive authority might not directly be serving to them to rank for a few causes:
They’ve extra PR
Excessive-authority web sites have plenty of high-authority pages. If they’ve plenty of inside hyperlinks pointing from these pages to the one you see rating in your goal key phrase, that could be partly why it’s rating so excessive.
They’re a well-known model
Folks usually wish to see outcomes from acquainted manufacturers, so it’s seemingly that Google’s algorithms take this under consideration both instantly or not directly. That is seemingly partly why you see huge manufacturers like Goal and Macy’s rating for some phrases even with few backlinks.

Tip: discover key phrases the place related caliber websites rank
- Enter a subject into Key phrases Explorer
- Go to the Matching phrases report
- Enter your website’s DR into the “Lowest DR” filter and select “In high 5” from the dropdown

C. How good is the content material?
Even when you can create the form of content material searchers are on the lookout for with relative ease, beating the competitors on high quality might not be so simple.
That is vital, as Google’s algorithms are designed to floor pages that display E-E-A-T, which stands for expertise, experience, authoritativeness, and belief.
Right here’s a fast breakdown of those 4 issues:
- Expertise – Do you’ve gotten firsthand or life expertise on the matter?
- Experience – Do you’ve gotten the mandatory information or ability for this matter?
- Authoritativeness – Are you generally known as a go-to supply for the matter?
- Belief – Is the web page correct, secure, sincere, and dependable?
Briefly, the upper the top-ranking pages rating in the case of these items, the tougher it’ll be to create content material that stands a very good probability of outranking them.
For instance, the highest three outcomes for “lump on neck” are written or reviewed by medical doctors and registered nurses:

These web sites are additionally arguably go-to sources for details about medical circumstances.
Consequently, except you’re a health care provider and your web site has an identical fame, you gained’t be capable of display wherever close to the identical stage of E-E-A-T in your content material.
Nevertheless, when you have a look at the highest outcomes for a key phrase like “greatest projectors beneath 300,” it’s fairly apparent from the usage of inventory photographs that the authors haven’t any firsthand expertise with any of the really helpful merchandise:

This might be a lot simpler to beat on high quality. You simply have to display firsthand expertise.
Ultimate ideas
Key phrases with the potential to ship you plenty of site visitors aren’t all the time price making an attempt to rank for. In addition they have to make sense for your corporation, and it’s good to give searchers the very best quality model of what they’re on the lookout for to face an opportunity at competing.
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